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Don’t Take Ben Carson Seriously (Except In Iowa — Maybe)
“Who is Ben Carson? Where did he come from?” asked CNN’s Jake Tapper after a CNN poll revealed that Carson, a political novice, was running second to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the Republican...
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Romney And The GOP’s Five-Ring Circus
There have been rumors for months that Mitt Romney might run for president again in 2016. On Monday afternoon, though, The Washington Post’s Robert Costa, Philip Rucker and Karen Tumulty — three...
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Two Background Players Join The 2016 Fray: Carly Fiorina And Ben Carson
There must be something in the air on the outer rings of the Republican Party. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina both chose Monday to announce they are running for president, even though neither has ever...
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The Post-Debate Losers (Walker) and Winners (Fiorina)
You’ve already heard a lot of different takes about who won and who lost the first Republican presidential debates last week. We’ve deliberately waited to name names; winning the media spin after a...
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Is The Republican Establishment Losing Control Of The Party?
The 2016 Republican presidential primary field is unusually large and unusually unsettled, and the first debate earlier this month didn’t do much to change either of those things. So we gathered...
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When Trump Attacks!
Donald Trump knows how to command attention, and one way he does that is by attacking … everyone. If you’re another candidate, in the media or just walking this earth, there’s a good chance you’ll be...
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A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
One question we’ve asked about Donald Trump’s campaign is what would happen if another candidate were to get a surge of media coverage, throwing a wrench in the works of Trump’s perpetual attention...
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The Republican Establishment Is Waiting On The Sidelines
The outsiders are coming! The outsiders are coming!Donald Trump has led the Republican primary race in almost every survey over the past two months, and now two other non-politicians, Ben Carson and...
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If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
Labor Day, when campaigns traditionally begin to rev up, is in the rearview mirror, and the Republican primary field is still crowded and messy. But Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, has been climbing in the...
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What Went Down In The Second GOP Debate
Some things haven’t changed in the month-plus since the first Republican debate. Donald Trump is still his consistently bombastic self, and he still sits atop the polls. Some things have changed: Ben...
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We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
We had so much fun live-blogging the second Republican debates last night that we woke up this morning still yammering about them. Editor-in-chief Nate Silver, senior political writer Harry Enten and...
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Who Does Scott Walker’s Exit Help?
We called the FiveThirtyEight politics team together in Slack — including a new member! — to reassess the GOP field now that Scott Walker has quit the race. Below is a lightly edited transcript of our...
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Why Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker Bid Was Doomed
Having a conservative track record isn’t everything in the Republican Party. Just ask Donald Trump, who doesn’t have one. Or Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who does. McCarthy decided today not to run for speaker...
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Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
You know who we haven’t talked about in a while? Donald Trump. Trump last appeared in a FiveThirtyEight headline on Oct. 2! That cannot stand. So for this week’s 2016 election Slack chat, we’re talking...
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Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
There’s a new front-runner in Iowa, and — by popular demand — we talked about what it means in this week’s 2016 election Slack chat. As always, the transcript below has been lightly edited.micah (Micah...
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Maybe Republicans Really Are In Disarray
As many of you have probably noticed, we’re suspicious of overarching political “narratives” here at FiveThirtyEight. Oftentimes, they’re applied prematurely to explain short-term fluctuations in the...
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Yeah, Jeb Bush Is Probably Toast
“You know, I think Jeb Bush is toast,” I told one of my editors after Wednesday night’s debate.“I kinda do too,” he replied. “I’m just worried because that’s what everyone else seems to think too.”Yes,...
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The Election Is A Year Away — Is Either Party Winning?
The presidential election is now officially one year away. So for this week’s 2016 Slack chat, we chewed over each party’s general election prospects. What do we know a year out? As always, the...
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The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
In a few months, after Iowa and New Hampshire begin to winnow the field, the GOP nomination race could boil down to an epic final between a candidate with a more pragmatic image, such as Marco Rubio,...
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